> So actually defeating Trump in a Republican primary contest would be //quite/ difficult, based on what we know now.
>
>But if Hogan’s goal is to win a substantial share of the vote while making the case for a [[ https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/419826-never-trump-conservative-calls-gop-existential-threat-to-us | different kind ]] of Republicanism, that [[ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ | seems more attainable ]]. National polls find Trump in [[ https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/HHP_November2018_RegisteredVoters-Topline.pdf | reasonably ]] [[ https://scottrasmussen.com/crosstabs-jan-4-5/ | good ]] [[ http://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/National-Monthly-Omnibus-December-1.pdf | shape ]] against potential primary foes, but surveys suggest that [[ https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1016&context=survey_center_polls | at least ]] [[ https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Z1lbFrjnIBmYZxWLZkzo_1nVg3uTRLcerSSauihlLdM/edit | some Republicans ]] in the early primary states of New Hampshire and Iowa might [[ https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/12/17/trump-iowa-republicans-2020-election-white-house-democrats-campaign-romney-sasse-rubio-kasich-flake/2312476002/ | be open to alternatives ]].
--[[ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-larry-hogan-have-a-shot-against-trump-in-a-2020-gop-primary/ | Geoffrey Skelley, "Does Larry Hogan have a shot against Trump in a 2020 GOP Primary?", FiveThirtyEight ]]